Passage 2
In the eyes of economists, economic growth is a phenomenon about population. First, the accumulation of capital needed to support growth comes from citizens’ saving tendencies. A labor-intensive economy has more deposit capacity than an ageing society. Secondly, economic growth relies on the growth of labor forces, especially young laborers. Sustained growth also depends on education standards.
In China, labor forces are mainly outsourced from rural areas. In the past 25 years, some 160 million rural laborers have quit traditional farming and found employment in cities or non-farming sectors.
Although agriculture still employs more than 60 per cent of China’s population, its share in the country’s financial revenue has declined to less than 15 per cent, dropping from 40 per cent or so in late 1970s. This also shows that China’s growth is mainly based on an industrialization course featuring expansion of the manufacturing sector.
Continuous supply of labor forces has improved China’s private saving capability substantially, which means surplus income that can be reinvested to fuel economic growth.
The importance of labor supply in China’s growth dynamics means it is necessary to review the way China’s population increases.
After years of decline, China’s birth rate is now equivalent to that of other emerging East Asian economies. The low birth rate in the country is mainly a result of the family planning policy initiated in the late 1970s.
Some scholars have estimated China will see zero growth in young laborers in 2015. Some have also projected that by 2030, 20 per cent of China’s population will be over 60-years-old, compared to 8 per cent now, and the number of pensioners will be more than 40 per cent of the number of working people.
49.China’s productivity mainly resulted from the transfer of labor forces to farming sectors.